The archive
September 23, 2026
233. How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future
Freakonomics Radio · Philip Tetlock · 47 min
Why we chose this episode
The researcher behind decades of forecasting studies explains why experts are often wrong and how ordinary people get better.
Listen for this question
What are you certain about that you have never tested?
Listen to the full episode
Every link above sends you to the creator’s own platform. We respect the original work, so we never host or summarize it here — we just point you back to the people who made it.
Visit Freakonomics RadioWho it’s for: Anyone who feels very sure about what happens next.
Best way to listen
On a walk, with a notebook for afterward.
After the episode
Write down one prediction and a date to check it.
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